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I hope you aren't getting too attached to those large pieces of plastic hanging around your TV. David Jaffe, the creator of God of War and Twisted Metal, has predicted that in the next ten years, consoles will be extinct.
"I don't think any of the consoles are going to do as well as they used to", he said in an interview with GamesIndustry. "It's a declining market, I think. That doesn't speak ill to any of them as pieces of hardware - it just speaks about the fact that the industry has changed, the business models have changed and the world has gotten even smaller with smartphones and tablets and the internet, and stuff like Gaikai and streaming."
"The next generation of hardware will be the last consoles. And they should be," he continued.
"It doesn't mean you won't buy a piece of hardware from Sony, but you'll probably buy a television that streams the stuff. And you'll still have Sony, loud and proud and strong making these great, big, epic games like God of War and Uncharted, and they'll be making great little games like Sound Shapes, but they'll become more like movie studios for video games. I'll be able to stream in the next Uncharted and Plants vs Zombies and you won't even think about it."
"So this is the last generation of consoles coming up. I'm going to go out on a limb, because why the f**k not? I don't care if I'm wrong, I'm not a business guy. I think next-gen consoles are going to do 40 percent of [the sales volume] of the current gen hardware."
If consoles were to die out, would you miss them? Since we're still waiting to see what the next Xbox and Playstation consoles will even look like, there remains the possibility that Sony and Microsoft will come up with something innovative enough to breathe new life into the console market.
Cloud gaming is a neat idea, and in the long run it might well develop into something phenomenal, but it's total reliance on internet connection is a major drawback for the time being. Baring that in mind, there is probably still a place for consoles for a little while yet. Besides, who wants to let go of that slightly-melted-radiator look of the Xbox 360, or the Fisher Price toaster vibe of the Wii? Why wouldn't you want that kind of thing prominently displayed in your living room?
Comments
12 years, 5 months ago
In ten years, it's going be very very strange to not have a constant Internet connection. If you don't have Internet in 10 years, you're most likely in poverty and should not be purchasing new consoles anyway.
How I see it.
12 years, 5 months ago
the problem is that internet in the USA is hit or miss, even in major cities with cable internet can still have issues. I mean the countries with the best chance of a cloud gaming digital only future would be japan or south korea, because their internet is regulated by the government. Which is why fighting games in japan have no lag over the internet...in the USA is all over the place with different companies and standards....
12 years, 5 months ago
Even with cloud gaming, consoles will not go away. Gamers will still need a machine which they will access their games from.
Look at OnLive. From what I understand, you still need to buy a machine to access their online catalog of games.
12 years, 5 months ago
I wouldn't be surprised. It's kinda evident that consoles now are starting to run out of truly good innovative ideas, and the best ones they've got are centered around improving hardware (which is true of any technology) and integration. Bringing the entire entertainment experience together for the sake of convenience. Once that kind of technology becomes more efficient and affordable, and it will, you can bet it'll become the new standard. However, I don't think we're there quite yet, and I can still see consoles being the more popular choice for at least another couple generations (either that or we'll remain with the next gen for a long time). I doubt consoles will ever completely disappear, but they'll probably fall out of the mainstream and be reserved for older gamers looking for a more nostalgic experience.
12 years, 5 months ago
Keep in mind high speed internet isn't everywhere. I don't think 10 years is enough to change that. It's one thing to make new hardware, and another to get optical cable to 2,000,000 homes that are more than 50 miles from high density population centers with enough people able to maintain it. Cloud gaming must have high access speeds. A software patch for current gen games does not. The ends has to justify the means. To wire up 50 square miles in areas with less population density yields less costumers than areas with a higher number of people per square mile, so those areas currently remain with out high speed reliable internet access. However, people in these areas can use less reliable speeds to patch their consoles and games. It's a big world out there and companies can't afford to throw away costumers through 'innovation.' If the console market tanks in the next 10 years, it likely isn't going to because streaming replaced it. I'd love to be wrong on this, but the fact is internet speeds are slower, or less reliable, away from densely populated areas.
12 years, 5 months ago
Beside Nintendo, i believe Jaffe is kind of right, but my believe on why the console will become extinct is because the gaming industry lost it. Sure, streaming games sounds like a great idea but it doesn't mean it's flawless. I believe what's going to kill it is the rush... The rush of releasing the next big thing. They're trying to compete with the PC and that's a losing battle right from the start. A PC does better in the market because of its flexibility. The graphics are too much for your PC, buy a new graphic card. Your PS3 can't take it, buy a PS4. Beside, how many of us are actually in a hurry to see or have the next gen console.
We have to ask ourselves: Do we really need to have this now? Are we already bored with our current generation console? Let's face it, the hardwares to make these next-gen games ain't cheap.
If they really want to compete with a PC, then their next console should be an Easy-to-Install customizable console.
12 years, 5 months ago
I'm a PC gamer so i personally don't care really. Buuuuuut,, moving everything to the cloud and internet is really unreliable and its kinda scaring me.
12 years, 5 months ago
Welcome to the next video game apocalypse guys. It had to happen sooner or later.
12 years, 5 months ago
Many people are saying this - I wouldn't be surprised at all if it happens. It's not easy to compete with powerful and super-simple mobile devices and PCs that arguably do, not just gaming but everything better.
12 years, 5 months ago
Well, he's right about at least one thing: ten years later they will still be making God of War games.
12 years, 5 months ago
Every time someone says this, they figure out how to make new consoles. But honestly, I'd rather have the computing horsepower here than in some server room. Even if it means I have to totally go to PC gaming, which I'm totally fine with. Less hardware to buy, as long as there's still good games out.
And, yes, Internet connectivity is still an issue. I've lived in a place where the current best option is still not very stream-friendly, and before that, it was dial-up only.
Just don't put everything on iPad only. I kinda don't want one. I like having buttons.
12 years, 5 months ago
HMM....I don't know I think they will still be around in some form.And if not.....time to put my stuff in storage so it will be worth money in a few decades.
12 years, 5 months ago
The major problem with this theory is the fact we're running out of bandwidth. If companies can't find a way to distrubute the amount of space we have for wireless streaming, cloud gaming and wireless communications via smartphones and tablets will eventually come to a crawl and stop all together.
Another disturbing theory I've been hearing in regards to this is that companies like Sony will start to charge more and more as the bandwidth space becomes more valuable. I'd rather have a physical console than pay more for "easy access".
12 years, 5 months ago
I welcome a new console generation at this point, I was previously opposed to but after seeing the decline of new and innovative titles my mind changed, I believe new consoles can fix that issue. I disagree with cloud gaming completely needing to be connected to the net at all times is not beneficial for everybody. I also hope that the next generation is indeed the last I'm kinda sick and tired of buying new hardware every 5-10 years however I also think its extremely unlikely.
12 years, 5 months ago
I'm kind of agreeing with him at this point. Aside from the bandwidth issues cropping up, we'd be really fucked over to assume that issue hasn't been resolved within the next decade.
Besides, having a Playstation built straight into their TV would probably help Sony sell more of those at any least. lol
12 years, 5 months ago
I could see this happening but just not quite the same way. Companies, specifically Nintendo and Microsoft will still need to sell a box (console) to enable the streaming. It might be the size of a Roku but it's still necessary. Something has to be on the receiving end besides just a tv. Even video streaming devices are constantly being updated to newer models with faster networking and higher resolutions.
12 years, 5 months ago
This is just a guy who's making a guess with as good of an idea as what's going to happen as one of us.
I'm not going to just jump on the "NO MORE CONSOLES FOREEEVEEEEER" group just because Jaffe is saying it.
12 years, 5 months ago
I think owning consoles is a novelty for many gamers and even if they stop producing more, they are not going to be completely ignored. I know many of my friends who own several consoles from over the decades and reach for them on a surprisingly frequent basis. The generation that stops making consoles altogether will have to be the same generation that solves the problems of cloud gaming, and I think that's a lot easier said than done. We'll just have to wait and see.